1
Choice: SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS (Oklahoma) ($ 8,842,200 slot value)
Between his time as scout director of Astros and GM of Orioles, Mike Elias has selected in the top five eight times in the last 10 drafts, including four №1 selections (2012, 2013, 2014, 2019). However, Elias and Orioles are very difficult to determine. Sometimes he chooses the best available player by consensus (like Adly Ruchman in 2019), and sometimes he chooses the portfolio approach (like with Colton Kauser in 2021). So, your guess is as good as mine. This pickaxe is almost not embedded in stone.
Baltimore is said to have limited its preference for No. 1 to five players: Holiday (Matt’s son), Cal Polly Brooks Lee, weak LSU player Jacob Berry, and Drew Jones High School outfielders (Andrew’s son) and Elijah Green. With a wide open field, the portfolio approach seems plausible and Holiday is a decent bet to take a deal under the slot, because he can fall to 7 or 8 choice if he doesn’t go number 1. For him, a deal under slot number 1 will be more profitable from a deal with slot number 7 or 8 (not that the money will change the life of the Holiday family anyway), plus he can say that it was a choice №1. It’s holiday.
2
Choice: OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS (Georgia) ($ 8,185,100 slot value)
Diamondbacks are up in the first round and Jones is now the No. 1 promising consensus in the draft. Arizona will jump on Jones if the Orioles pass.
If the “O’s” take Jones, Arizona will likely turn to Elijah Green or second-year baseman Termar Johnson, each of whom will satisfy their desire for a significant increase. There is very little chance that Jones will stay on board after this choice.
3
Choice: OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy (Florida) ($ 7,587,600 slot value)
It is rumored that the Rangers strongly want Drew Jones to slip away here, but a) this is very unlikely and b) this is not happening in our model project. Green has had a similar rise and was considered a better prospect in the spring, so he’s the next best thing. If Green, Jones and Jackson Holiday enter the top three, as they do in our model project, this will be the first time the top three have been high school students since 2017 (Royce Lewis, Hunter Green and Mackenzie Gore).
4
Choice: SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly ($ 7,002,100 slot value)
GM Ben Charington had two top 10 picks in his first two pirate drafts and used both on college strikers (Nick Gonzalez in 2020 and Henry Davis in 2021). He may be made by three straight strikers from college in the top 10. Lee may not be long for a short stop, but he is a switching striker with great bat-to-ball ability, a high value skill in the era of high attributes / high shifts.
5
Choice: C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech (slot value from $ 6,494,300)
Parada and Nationals have been in constant contact for the past few weeks. The Yellow Jackets backstop had almost as many home runs (26) as outsiders (32) this spring, and his performance behind the record has improved. Washington is more likely to go with Brooks Lee over one of the high school bats if they are on board here.
6
Choice: 2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS (Georgia) (slot value $ 6,034,300)
The case could be made Johnson is the best clean striker in the 2022 draft. Marlin is said to be among the best bats in high school (Johnson, Elijah Green, Jackson Holiday, Drew Jones) more than the best bats in college (Brooks Lee, Kevin Parade), and Johnson is the only one of those players still available in our fake project, so he goes to Miami. He bears some resemblance to Kalil Watson, a potential pick in the top 5-10 last year, who slipped to Marlins at number 16.
7
Choice: 3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (Florida) (slot value from $ 5,708,000)
The Cubs are linked to Collier, the son of former major league player Lou Collier, more than any other team this spring. He is a fascinating prospect – Collier received his high school education and finished high school early and scored .333 / .419 / .537 with eight homers in 52 games as a 17-year-old in junior college this spring – and one of the youngest players in the draft class . Teams that rely on analytical models love Collier’s highly impaired abilities and performance in terms of age and competition.
8
Choice: SS Zach Net, Campbell ($ 5,439,500 slot value)
The twins are a club run by models (said to be a long time ago of the Cam Collier, which is not available in our model project) and Neto is a favorite of the model thanks to its excellent contact speeds and insanely great exit speeds. The right-handed striker is the author of the .407 / .514 / .769 line with 15 homers, 19 stolen thefts in 20 attempts, 39 walks and only 19 outs this spring. Whether it’s the Twins or another team, Neto is the key to becoming the first choice in the first round in Campbell’s history.
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