Has anything changed two weeks before election day? David Akin guides us through his numbers. Horvath and Schreiner became infected with COVID-19.
Alex Butilier: The 43rd general election in Ontario is not an election for nothing, but an election in which nothing seems to break through to the electorate.
Public opinion polls published so far provide a comfortable lead for PC leader Doug Ford, with better than even chances of being reinstated for a second majority. Both Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca and NDP leader Andrea Horvat appear to be vying for second place.
This is a much more dangerous proposal for Horvat, who led the new Democrats in Ontario in four consecutive elections without being prime minister. Del Duca, whose retention of liberal leadership is by no means guaranteed, would be in a better place if the party manages to break free from the rigging of the 2018 election.
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1:56 Do Ontario Progressive Parties Hinder Their Election Hopes? Are Progressive Parties in Ontario hampering their election hopes?
It was a sleepy campaign and the polls reflect overall stability.
But every political observer knows that the above numbers are only part of the story. Regional battles and idiosyncrasies, along with the candidates themselves, play a major role in deciding who gets a seat in the next parliament.
Global News chief political correspondent David Akin, who spends too much time with spreadsheets, joins us this week to outline his predictions for the composition of the next Ontario government.
David, a maniac.
David Akin: I always like to determine the expected upcoming races – the expected nail nuts – we’ll probably see once the votes start counting. Remember: elections in our first past parliamentary system are not just one race, but 124 individual races in Ontario. And although the overall result was slightly skewed in 2018, there were actually 22 races four years ago in which the difference in victory was less than five percent and another 13, where the winner was five to 10 points more than the second-place finisher. place.
The closest race in 2018 was what you may remember was called very late in the evening: the victory of the liberal Mickey Hunter in Scarborough-Guildwood. She won by just 74 votes, up 0.2 percent.
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(AB: I didn’t remember.)
According to our analysis of the Global News seat forecast, this year Hunter should survive easier. Although our forecast for the place may change, given that there are still two weeks of the election campaign left, we expect Hunter to win by a margin of perhaps 20 points. In 2014, when the Liberals won their last majority, Hunter won Guildwood by a convenient 12-point margin.
Looking at this year’s election, the closest race we see at the moment will probably be another ride in Toronto: the Toronto Center.
Susie Morrison won this ride for the NDP in a walk in 2018, but Morrison is not seeking re-election. Instead, former Toronto City Councilor Christine Wong-Tam carries the NDP flag and confronts David Morris with the Liberals. Morris ran and lost in 2018. So voters in the Toronto Center have two candidates, Wong-Tam and Morris, with whom they may be familiar. This is definitely progressive driving and in our model we have a virtual connection between the two. However, we have to choose a winner and today it is the liberal Maurice with 47 votes or 0.1 percent. But as we see new poll data over the next few days, that will almost certainly change. Anyway: all eyes will be on the heart of Toronto on election night.
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Alex Butilier: Well, that looks really thin – even for you! What do your above numbers say?
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David Akin: Good idea! Doug Ford is currently returning with another PC majority, winning 70 of the 124 seats in the province. That would be a drop from the 76 seats that computers won in 2018, but still good enough for Ford’s, four more years. Stephen Del Duca’s Liberals are returning from this historic figure in 2018 to win 27 seats and become official opposition, while Andrea Horvat’s NDP expects a disappointing end to 2018, falling to 26 seats and third country status. Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner must return to represent Guelph’s ride.
This forecast, by the way, is a model based on the aggregation of five polls published between May 16 and 18, which combined the preferences of voters of more than 4,600 Ontario residents. When more surveys come out in the coming days, we will mix them into the model and expect our final model – and final results – to be different from what we have here. But the trend at least for now: PC majority with the Liberals and the New Democrats in a close race to be the official opposition.
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At the moment we have 24 of the 124 places in the province that are changing owners; 27 rides in which the winner squeaks five percent or less over the runner-up; and 14, where the winning win is between five points and 10 points.
Alex Butilier: This supports my theory of the Seinfeld elections. In the end, we will be more or less where we started, but we will feel somehow dirty and wrong about what just happened. Colin, what do you think of David’s predictions and the week that was?
Colin D’Mello: David’s best numbers are in line with what we see in the campaign. The NDP revolves around sociological research, liberals are gaining momentum (although I use the term freely) and Doug Ford could probably take a beach holiday (perhaps best to stick to the shores of Lake Ontario) and still maintain its majority.
The NDP definitely feels that the party is on unstable ground. It ended the week by offering drivers a new 401 truck-free policy and a ceiling on petrol prices, attracting 905 PC-targeted voters. However, it is so late in the campaign that they are accused of desperation to stabilize their support.
Meanwhile, Liberal leader Stephen Del Duca is facing constant questions about whether he will be able to remain a leader if he loses the election, and even his place. Del Duca, apparently, claims that he will win his seat and win a majority. But it looks like the sign may be on the wall if you’re asking questions about leadership, rather than “how are you going to spend your first 100 days in the office?”
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The only bright spot this week was Green Party leader Mike Schreiner, who reportedly won this week’s debate for the leader. Fate is a cruel master, the sunlight on Schreiner’s solar panels dimmed just as he had some wind in his turbines. He caught COVID-19 this week along with NDP leader Andrea Horvat, which will eliminate both during a crucial period of the election campaign.
So to summarize this week: with the first place now looking locked, we see an increasingly nasty struggle for second place between the Liberals and the NDP, leading to a similar result in the 2018 campaign. As Seinfeld would say: there’s something wrong with that. “
Global coverage of the Ontario elections in 2022, third week:
See the Global News Promise Tracking Tool, following every promise and policy announced during the campaign.
The NDP says it is 10 places since the overthrow of Doug Ford. Is math coming together? New Democrats in Ontario are paving the way for a minority government with the support of the Liberals and the Green Party in a strategy that is less geared toward winning a majority government than giving up Doug Ford’s computers for a second term, the party said insiders. . (Colin D’Melo and Alex Butille)
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Party leaders clash over accessibility, healthcare and the environment during the debate. Leaders of Ontario’s four major political parties faced off on Monday night, discussing a range of topics, including health, accessibility and the environment. (Isaac Callan)
Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner sits with Global News After his 2018 election breakthrough, his strong performance in the leaders’ debate and before receiving COVID-19, Green Party leader Mike Schreiner sat down with Global News. (Global news)
Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horvat is sitting with Global News. Challenging her fourth presidential election, Andrea Horvat has turned her attention to the prime minister’s office. Alan Carter of Global News sat down with the NDP veteran to talk about the campaign and its aspirations. (Global news)
NDP, Ontario Liberals to Fight Islamophobia and Other Hate If Elected New Democrats and Liberals in Ontario pledged on Wednesday to fight Islamophobia and other forms of hatred if elected to form government next month . (Canadian Press)
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The Ontario Greens government will provide grants for home improvements if Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner says he wants to tackle the climate crisis …
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