More people travel to downtown offices than at any time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but recovery is not the same everywhere, with both GO Transit and TTC reporting passenger fluctuations as many workers choose to work from home at the beginning and end of each week.
This is a phenomenon stemming from the popular hybrid model, in which many employees increasingly spend part of their weeks working remotely and the other part working from an office.
But if the trend continues, it could create problems for cities, especially those with large transit systems that are designed to transport workers to the core at the beginning and end of each day.
This is also bad news for small businesses, most of which have relied on a more lively return of workers than has materialized so far.
“It’s not just about people’s personal preferences, it’s not just about the company’s policies, it’s about the side effect it has,” Mayor John Torrey told reporters at this week’s Collision technology conference, where the future of the work was the main topic. . “In Toronto at the moment, people, perhaps not surprisingly, choose to work on Tuesdays, Wednesdays and Thursdays (in their offices) instead of Mondays and Fridays. But for us, we run a transit system if you have a two-day job where very few people come to work, which has a profound financial impact. It also has a profound effect on the city. ”
At one point during the pandemic, office occupancy in the financial district was at approximately five percent of 2019 levels.
But he slowly returned to life as public health restrictions were lifted and a sense of normalcy returned to the city.
The latest data from the Strategic Regional Research Alliance shows that employment in downtown Toronto has now returned to about 25 percent, with about four out of 10 workers coming at least once a week.
The think tank says it expects employment to continue to recover, reaching 30% of pre-pandemic levels by August. But he warns that employers believe that “organizing the workplace in the same way as the workplace before the pandemic is very unlikely in the future.”
Speaking to CP24.com this week, Ian De Silva, president and CEO of the Toronto Region Board of Commerce, acknowledged that there was a lot of anecdotal evidence to suggest that office workers were returning more slowly on Monday and Friday. But she said she hoped the trend would be fleeting, as the resurgence of “something like a five-day work week” was “critical” to the future success of downtown Toronto.
“We have so many small businesses in the city center, about 17,000 small businesses, for which this day laborer is their customer base,” she said. “However, I think the important thing to consider is not just one point in time. We need to see if we have momentum in the right direction. And certainly what we hear from the business is that they are getting a growing number of returning customers, some of them have even indicated that they have returned to the levels they were before, and we have seen a lot of new restaurants in the restaurants for catering and new establishments reopen. This does not mean that there may not be some problems that we need to pay attention to. But everything we see right now suggests we’re on the right track. “
De Silva said the slow return of workers to the center may not be surprising, given that Toronto had some of the “longest blockades anywhere in North America” and “the nature of many jobs in the financial district. allowed work from home “
As a benchmark, employment in the city’s second-largest employment zone around Pearson International Airport fell to about 63% from 2019 levels at the height of the pandemic, but recovered “almost immediately,” according to De Silva.
Looking ahead, De Silva envisions most of the 118,000 employees working for companies in high-rise buildings in the Financial District eventually returning to their offices on a more permanent basis, perhaps immediately after the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of 2023.
“I would say that what we hear from our members is that they are definitely watching this closely. “We have not seen any movement to vacate real estate in response, and I do not think there is a sense at this point that this will be a permanent condition,” she said. “Our best guess at this point is that it will be something that will adjust over time. We can’t say it will be five days a week for all 100 percent of the time on date X, but we think it will be a growing scenario for a return to the office.
Transit traffic resumes slowly on weekdays
As Toronto shifts to a new reality after the pandemic, perhaps with a more constant shift to flexible working arrangements, transit operators are already seeing some strange oddities in passengers.
TTC spokesman Stuart Green told CP24.com that May’s data showed lower attendance “on board” on Monday, although it was “fairly evenly distributed” on other days.
In GO Transit, meanwhile, spokeswoman Anne Marie Aikins said the agency is now returning to about 90% of travelers before the weekend pandemic.
However, GO Transit continues to see a much lower passenger on weekdays than the pre-pandemic norm, currently around 50% of 2019 levels.
“It’s hard to say what the model will be, but I can certainly see that it’s quieter on Monday and Friday, especially on Friday,” Aikins said. “Every week the passengers change. It is not as if we have these months and months on this journey and the model has developed solidly.
Aikins said GO transit has restored only about 75% of its daily train services so far and plans to expand the service again in the fall if there is a more significant return of office workers to the core.
At the same time, she said the transit agency is experimenting with things like the tariff structure, acknowledging the fact that many people do not work downtown five days a week and may no longer take advantage of some of the discounts provided by GOs before. this riders who have traveled by train more than 36 times a month.
It also adds GO bus routes to a number of popular attractions this summer as it seeks to take advantage of the fuller return of leisure travelers.
“You have to make sure that you really understand the model and what is sticky. You know, we’ve never been in this situation before, planning a transit after a pandemic. So it’s hard to say where things will go and you have to keep adjusting, “she said.
Torrey promised to appoint a commission to consider broad issues
Efforts to bring workers back to the core have been going on for months, with all Toronto employees required to spend at least part of their work week in the office since March.
The Ontario Public Service also requires its employees to be in the office one to two days a week in April, as part of what it calls a “temporary hybrid model.”
However, most employers whose workforce moved remotely during the pandemic do not insist on returning full-time to the office at this time, and it is unclear whether they will ever do so.
In a statement to CP24, BIA Toronto Financial District Executive Director Grant Hums said that “both offices and retailers welcome larger groups of people every day in the financial district.”
But he acknowledged that there was some “fluctuation” in pedestrian traffic, largely as a result of “hybrid work schedules.”
For his part, Torrey announced this week that he would appoint a group of senior leaders to help provide “real-time advice” on the city’s economic recovery and the future of work, noting that this is “a very deep issue with potential very profound consequences ”for the city.
But at least for now, business leaders are taking a wait-and-see approach before hastily concluding that a lull on Monday and Friday will become a permanent element in Toronto’s reality after the pandemic.
“The good weather certainly helps the crowd from Tuesday to Thursday and we’ll just see how the summer balance develops,” De Silva told CP24.com. “By the fall, I know many of our big employers expect to see something similar. five days a week. Not that they will necessarily do it, but more I think it will be the thinking of our workers about being in this office environment.
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