The West should have acted years ago, arming Ukraine with weapons and imposing heavy sanctions on Russia, a move that would have “100 percent” deterred Vladimir Putin from launching his invasion earlier this year, says Mikhail Khodorkovsky, an exiled oligarch turned in dissent.
Mr Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest man before he was hounded and jailed by the Kremlin, said Western governments bore “significant responsibility” for the conflict in Ukraine after failing to act against President Putin following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 Mr.
The former oil and gas tycoon, who at one point had a personal fortune estimated at £12.38 billion, compared the West’s inaction to being hit by a gangster and handing over money.
“When a gangster comes up to you, not just a London hooligan but a real gangster, and slaps you, all you can do is give him your wallet and hope he doesn’t take your pants off,” Mr Khodorkovsky said to The Independent.
“Of course, there is a significant responsibility. The annexation of Crimea in 2014. People decided they could continue business as usual.
“Putin took it as a weakness. And we have what we have.”
In February 2014, Russia seized the Crimean peninsula – setting the stage for the current war – in violation of international law that was widely condemned by the Western world.
Russia was expelled from the G8 and subjected to a series of economic sanctions as a result of the annexation. Russian officials were hit with travel and transaction bans, overseas assets were frozen, and bilateral talks on military, space and visa requirements were suspended.
Additional sanctions were imposed as the war in Donbass escalated in 2014, but the West never attempted to constrain the Russian economy to the extent it is today, nor were weapons and military equipment readily supplied to the Ukrainian government.
By failing to do so, the Kremlin dared to launch an invasion of the country almost a decade later, Mr Khodorkovsky believed.
“If they had imposed the sanctions then, as they have done now, and if the Ukrainians had been given military weapons like they are given today, then there is a 100 percent probability that Putin would not be going to war now,” he said. “But what’s done is done.”
However, Mr Khodorkovsky, who was stripped of his wealth by the Kremlin and jailed in 2003 for challenging the Putin regime, has also questioned the extent to which the current package of sanctions is slowing Russia’s military machine.
The International Monetary Fund expects a 10 percent contraction in Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) as a result of the measures, but analysts do not believe they have been effective in a military sense.
Some also argue that the Russian currency’s recovery since last month and the central bank’s recent cuts to previously sky-high interest rates show that Moscow is coping with the sanctions regime.
“I think that sanctions nowadays are not an opportunity to stop the war,” said Mr. Khodorkovsky, now a leading Kremlin critic after his release from prison in 2013. “They will limit Putin’s militaristic options, but not now — later scene.
G7 leaders wrap up summit aimed at boosting support for Ukraine
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1/4G7 leaders wrap up summit designed to boost support for Ukraine
G7 leaders wrap up summit aimed at boosting support for Ukraine
G7 summit in Germany
G7 summit in Germany
(c) Copyright 2022, dpa (www.dpa.de). All rights reserved
G7 leaders wrap up summit aimed at boosting support for Ukraine
G7 summit in Germany
G7 summit in Germany
G7 leaders wrap up summit aimed at boosting support for Ukraine
G7 summit in Germany
G7 summit in Germany
(c) dpa-pool
G7 leaders wrap up summit aimed at boosting support for Ukraine
APTOPIX Germany G7 Summit
APTOPIX Germany G7 Summit
Copyright 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
“The only way to help Ukraine is by arming and training the Ukrainian military. That is all.”
Despite the need to continue supporting Ukraine, countries are beginning to turn their attention away from the war, Mr. Khodorkovsky added. “This is a problem, a problem, and Putin understands it. He uses time as his support.
However, this week NATO announced it will increase the number of forces on high alert to more than 300,000 from 40,000 – the biggest change to the alliance’s defenses since the Cold War.
The military alliance also confirmed it would expand troop deployments in European member states closest to Russia and boost air defenses.
Mr Khodorkovsky said that, in the eyes of Kremlin officials, NATO was seen as weak and unwilling to act if Russia invaded its Baltic neighbors – countries that President Putin still considers part of the “motherland”.
If such a scenario unfolds, it will mean the “symbolic” end of NATO as an institution, Mr. Khodorkovsky added. “Many countries that are now part of NATO will decide that this is not a guarantee of our security,” he said.
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